The price of potatoes in 2019 increased due to a shortage of domestic product caused by weather conditions, an increase in storage costs, and the import of foreign vegetables. To complete the picture, it is necessary to consider data on the indicators of the cost of culture of past years and those that are presented in the media today.
- Market situation
- Indicators for 2017
- Potato price in 2018
- Forecasts for 2019
- According to media reports
Characteristics of potato prices in 2019
Market situation
The second place in the Russian economy belongs to agriculture, which annually replenishes the budget by 5.5-6 trillion rubles or more. Plant growing holds the leading position in the industry (54%).
Potatoes are appreciated I am a Russian consumer along with wheat and included in the list of goods of primary importance.This allows you to set the boundaries for raising prices for it with an unreasonable increase in indicators in individual regions.
An unprecedented crop for potato pricing was an unprecedented crop 2015-2016 years., Collapsed the agricultural market and brought loss to all medium and small enterprises. The average price per 1 kg of vegetable crop in the winter was 10 rubles, and in the spring-summer – 6 rubles.
An emergency occurred due to incorrect calculations and an increase in the sown area. It was possible to correct the consequences and prevent a subsequent excess by improving the agrarian policy of the country.Thus, it turned out:
- to improve product quality;
- to create processing complexes;
- to increase export routes.
2017 indicators
Rosstat data show an increase in average retail indicators by 24%. The forecast, released in December 2016, paid off, but with slight errors. The main reason was called the depletion of reserves, which have been preserved since the 2015 harvest, but external and internal factors, which are more difficult to calculate, influence the formation of the crop.
In the spring, when old stocks were depleted and new ones were not yet ripe, the product imported from other states. The main partner in supply issues is Egypt (40% of the total).
In 2017, a shortage of domestic vegetable production was formed. It was the result of a discrepancy between the figures laid down in the Doctrine of Food Security and real receipts in storage from potato fields. The increase in prices directly depends on the requirements set by foreign partners.
The internal reasons for the increase in cost were storage and transportation costs. The main factor in reducing the amount of domestic product was the instability of weather conditions throughout Russia. The planting season was delayed due to the extremely cold spring, and heavy rainfall reduced the quality of the harvest.
The annual report of Rosstat showed the average cost of potatoes by region, which amounted to 12 rubles. per 1 kg, and last year’s figures ranged from 6 to 10 rubles.
The price of potatoes in 2018
The weather greatly affected the price of potatoes
The disappointing forecast of experts on the effect of weather on the delay of the planting season came true. Landing in 2017 was carried out in the southern regions no earlier than March, and in the northern regions – May-June. The sown area was reduced by 5%, and the delay averaged over 14 days in the country.
The prolonged rains did not improve the situation, but only reduced the growing season of the tubers. This reduced the shelf life of the crop, which led to a decrease in the quality of the goods sold.
Summing up the annual results showed that the potato sale season was high in terms of price level. The average indicators of wholesale deliveries across Russia in the second month of spring 2018 increased by 25%. Vegetable crops were put in storage at 8-10 rubles each, and sold in the spring of 2018 from 15 rubles. per 1 kg.
Forecasts for 2019
A disappointing forecast awaits the consumer in 2019, as the price of goods will increase.
The provocation of growth will be the depletion of domestic stocks, the sown area, the area of which in 2018 decreased by 3-5%.
The harvest is not only numerically short, but also of poor quality. The latter was facilitated by weather conditions that shortened the growing season.
Prices will be set for the new season taking into account the expended resources for storage and transportation of products. Tuberous crops should be maintained in certain conditions, which requires rental costs, maintaining a microclimate and energy resources.
Winter transportation does not go without renting expensive thermal transport. The increase in price indicators (forecasted up to 40-50 rubles per 1 kg) will continue until the last ten days of May or the first weeks of June. After that, the season of young potatoes, which comes from domestic gardens, will open.
According to media reports
Recent data indicate that in 6 regions of the Urals Federal District vegetable stocks will be depleted before the harvest new crop. They will not be able to do without additional supplies (especially regions with a lack of farm supplies).
The Tyumen region collected tubers from an area not exceeding 2.5 thousand ha. This does not cover consumer requests, therefore, import is carried out, which affects the price increase.
In the market for the past 1.5 months of 2019 ode fixed a systematic increase in the cost of production. At the time of the collection there was a decrease, the price tags are now added to 2 rubles., which ranged from 29.5 to 35 rubles. for 1 kg. The drought of 2018 caused a shortage of product, which led to a jump in prices in markets from Siberia to the central regions of the country.
